Reflections: Sharing Colorado River Shortages and Friday the 13th

March 24, 2026
Sharon B. Megdal
Water Resources Research Center
Reflections
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3 pp.
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Water Resources Research Center
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Tucson, AZ
feb 20 2026 lead image glen canyon dam

Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River

Image: Bureau of Reclamation
Attachments
Reflections: Sharing Colorado River Shortages and Friday the 13th (pdf)

Superstition considers Friday the 13th an unlucky day, a day for inauspicious happenings. Regarding the Colorado River, two concerning developments were announced on Friday, February 13, 2026. State officials from the seven US States sharing the Colorado River issued statements regarding the lack of agreement on a new framework for sharing Colorado River shortages when the current operating framework expires at the end of this year. The federal government had established February 14 as its deadline for an agreement. Also on February 13, the US Bureau of Reclamation released its February 2026 Most Probable 24-Month Study for Colorado River operations, which was accompanied by a news release titled Spring Runoff Projections for Colorado River Basin Worsen, which indicates: “A lack of precipitation over the past month has pushed the most probable water year inflow forecast for Lake Powell down by 1.5 million-acre feet (maf) since January – now roughly 3.0 maf lower than projections made in November. That loss is equivalent to approximately 50 feet in elevation in Lake Powell.”

Underscoring just how bad the winter precipitation has been to date, the release soberingly reports: “The water year inflow is now estimated at just 52% of average, and as a result, the February 24-Month Study projects, for the first time, that Lake Powell could decline (based on most probable projections) to:

  • 3,490 ft – minimum power pool in December 2026; below this level Glen Canyon Dam’s ability to release water is reduced and it can no longer produce hydropower.
  • 3,476 ft – in March 2027; the lowest elevation on record since filling further constraining the ability to release…water from Glen Canyon Dam.”

The release also includes a statement suggesting that collaboration will continue. Acting Reclamation Commissioner Scott Cameron states: “The basin's poor hydrologic outlook highlights the necessity for collaboration as the Basin States, in collaboration with Reclamation, work on developing the next set of operating guidelines for the Colorado River system.” Regarding the reliability of dam operations, Cameron notes: “Protecting reservoir elevations in 2026 is important to ensure the dams can continue reliable delivery of water and generation of power.”

During the drafting of this essay on the morning of February 14, I became aware of a February 14 Bureau of Reclamation news release. The release begins as follows:

The Department of the Interior is moving forward with the Post-2026 NEPA process to finalize operating guidelines for Colorado River reservoirs by Oct. 1, 2026. While the seven Basin States have not reached full consensus on an operating framework, the Department cannot delay action. Meeting this deadline is essential to ensure certainty and stability for the Colorado River system beyond 2026.

The release continues:

“Negotiation efforts have been productive; we have listened to every state’s perspective and have narrowed the discussion by identifying key elements and issues necessary for an agreement. We believe that a fair compromise with shared responsibility remains within reach,” said Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. “I want to thank the governors of the seven Basin States for their constructive engagement and commitment to collaboration. We remain dedicated to working with them and their representatives to identify shared solutions and reduce litigation risk. Additionally, we will continue consultations with Tribal Nations and coordinate with Mexico to ensure we are prepared for Water Year 2027.”

Commentary on the reasons for and implications of lack of agreement, along with speculation as to the federal government’s likely action and the likelihood of litigation, will continue to fill the news stories about these Friday the 13th statements. I am among the many observers who have been called upon to make media statements, and I am regularly asked about the situation in educational presentations and other speaking engagements. What prompted me to write this essay now is that these recent developments are leading me to frame the challenges we face in a new way, in addition to the wicked water problem framework about which I have frequently written and spoken.

I am now considering the Colorado River’s condition a natural disaster. Definitions of natural disaster do not always include drought. It is not mentioned in archived content of the Department of Homeland Security, but drought is a basis of disaster relief by the US Department of Agriculture, and long-term drought is listed among examples of natural disasters. Regardless, the Colorado River’s reduced flows due to weather and climate conditions amount to a natural disaster with profound implications for the reliability of water supplies and the integrity of critical infrastructure and other services, such as dams and electricity production. Avoiding adverse impacts may be beyond what short-term actions to “prop up” the system can address.

Concerns about Glen Canyon Dam operations became apparent earlier this decade, when, in May 2022, Reclamation took “extraordinary action” to boost Lake Powell’s water levels high enough to support power generation. In an April 2022 letter to the seven Basin States’ negotiators, then Assistant Secretary for Water and Science Tanya Trujillo pointed to concerns about future operations and the integrity of Glen Canyon Dam. Trujillo noted:

Notwithstanding these robust, ongoing efforts to analyze potential releases from Colorado River Storage Project initial units to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, we believe that additional actions are needed to reduce the risk of Lake Powell dropping to elevations at which Glen Canyon Dam releases could only be accomplished through the river outlet works (i.e., below elevation 3490' mean sea level (msl)), or hydropower operations infrastructure at Glen Canyon Dam would be adversely impacted (i.e., as reservoir elevations decline towards elevation 3490' msl). In such circumstances, Glen Canyon Dam facilities face unprecedented operational reliability challenges, water users in the Basin face increased uncertainty, downstream resources could be impacted, the western electrical grid would experience uncertain risk and instability, and water and power supplies to the West and Southwestern United States would be subject to increased operational uncertainty.

That, despite these warnings, we are now, almost four years later, facing these extremely low reservoir levels suggests that we must recognize the need to prepare for adverse water conditions. We can hope for the best, but we must prepare for the worst. Disruptions to water releases downstream of Glen Canyon or Hoover Dams, threats to the structural integrity to Glen Canyon Dam, and cessation of power supplies, along with their many human, economic, and natural implications, are disastrous outcomes from climate and weather conditions. This qualifies as a natural disaster.

Additionally, while I am not an attorney, I’ve seen many a legal agreement that refers to Force Majeure, which is defined by Merriam-Webster as 1: superior or irresistible force; and 2: an event or effect that cannot be reasonably anticipated or controlled. The site goes on to state:

Force majeure translates literally from French as superior force. In English, the term is often used in line with its literal French meaning, but it has other uses as well, including one that has roots in a principle of French law. In business circles, ‘force majeure’ describes those uncontrollable events (such as war, labor stoppages, or extreme weather) that are not the fault of any party and that make it difficult or impossible to carry out normal business. A company may insert a force majeure clause into a contract to absolve itself from liability in the event it cannot fulfill the terms of a contract (or if attempting to do so will result in loss or damage of goods) for reasons beyond its control.

We are in uncharted waters. We have experienced Colorado River Basin precipitation and climate conditions that could not have reasonably be anticipated or controlled. Extraordinary actions are likely to be required to sustain personal, business, and environmental livelihoods in the broadest sense.

The Colorado River Basin is not alone in facing new and adverse realities. In January of this year, the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health released the report, Global Water Bankruptcy: Living Beyond Our Hydrological Means in the Post-Crisis Era. I encourage the reader to look at the summary of the report’s findings in the news release and the report itself. The Foreword states:

The concept of water bankruptcy draws attention to the evidence that societies rely on both renewable water flows and long-term natural storage, comparable to drawing on income and savings, and that in many basins and aquifers sustained withdrawals have exceeded renewable replenishment and safe depletion thresholds. As a result, available water resources and associated ecosystem functions have been significantly reduced, with some impacts irreversible or effectively irreversible on human time scales.

A key point of the report is that, rather than speaking about crisis conditions from which rebound or recovery can be expected, adjustments to the new realities of reduced river flows and groundwater are needed. The Colorado River is mentioned on page 34 of the report.

I tend to be a glass half-full kind of person, and I do think that, collectively, we have the ability to innovate and to adapt. When working with a system that is well under half full, one that looks to be losing rather than adding water in storage, compromise is essential. As I wrote in a 2022 essay and have stated since, the Colorado River is not waiting. It is time for concerted action for the benefit of the Colorado River system and all who depend on it.