Scientific Thinking to Remedy "Black Swans," "Wicked Problems," and Assorted Science/ Policy Failures

Science can be thought of in two mutually incompatible ways: (1) science-as-knowledge, serving as an authoritative basis for action, and (2) sciences-as-process of inquiry, serving as a continually updated guide to action. There is mounting evidence that overemphasis on (1) is increasingly contributing to failures for the betterment of humankind. In remedy for this, the Earth and environmental sciences, conceived in mode (2), offer great promise for societal benefit through their evolving toward a nature-directed, trans-disciplinary focus on the complexities of the real world. This new focus is needed to overcome problems created by the limitations on scientific thinking that get imposed when reality is artificially simplified in order to generate predictions a the primary basis for action. Among the most pressing issues are "Black Swans" (surprising extreme-impact events that exceed expected possibilities), "Wicked Problems" (unique, seemingly endless questions without true or false answers, that get viewed from conflicting perspectives, and whose "solutions" lead to yet more wicked problems), and failures at achieving wise policy outcomes when science is misconstrued as an authoritative method for fixing belief. The use of abductive inference in scientific thinking, as a complement to the current overemphasis on inductive/deductive inference, can provide the key element for achieving a kind of truly scientific thinking that will make progress on many issues of current societal concern, ultimately leading to improved pubic understanding and appropriate political action.