May 2 Brown Bag: Modeling Water Scarcity and Droughts to Analyze Climate Change Adaptation Policies in the Jucar Basin, Spain

Brown Bag speaker Prof. Ariel Dinar (University of Calif., Riverside) will present, "Modeling Water Scarcity and Droughts to Analyze Climate Change Adaptation Policies in the Jucar Basin, Spain" from 12 - 1:30 p.m. on Friday, May 2. Prof. Dinar's presentation is co-sponsored by the UA Water Sustainability Program, Institute of the Environment, and the Renewable Energy Network, and will be held in the WRRC Sol Resnick Conference Room (350 N. Campbell Ave). This presentation will also be webcast live via GoToMeeting (details here:

Growing water extractions for agriculture and urban uses combined with emerging environmental demands increase water resources competition worldwide, especially in arid and semiarid regions. Climate change would exacerbate water scarcity and the recurrence and intensity of droughts, calling for methodologies that can support sustainable water management policies. Prof. Ariel Dinar will present his paper on an integrated hydro-economic model that links a reduced form hydrological component, with economic and environmental components. The model is used to analyze alternative drought management policies in the Jucar Basin (Spain). Results indicate that droughts have large welfare impacts, with the main adjustments sustained by irrigation activities and the environment. Implementing water markets among private decision-makers is a suitable option to avoid economic losses from droughts. However, the environmental effects of water trading may weaken its advantages. The current water management approach in the Jucar Basin is based on negotiated arrangements and stakeholders’ cooperation, achieving a balance between economic and environmental objectives. Water markets can be used to allocate water into the environment in the absence of minimum binding inflows to ecosystems. Comparing these policy approaches illustrates the potential of hydro-economic modeling for integrating the multiple dimensions of water resources, in order to advance sustainable water management policies.

Ariel Dinar is a Professor of Environmental Economics and Policy and Director of the Water Science and Policy Center at the University of California, Riverside.  He teaches and conducts research on issues related to water, climate change economics, regional cooperation and international water management.